Grok Conversation

U.S. aid to Jordan and Egypt should be considered part of the broader support system for Israel, as it helps maintain their non-hostile stance toward Israel despite public opposition.
. Let’s explore this, then extend it to other nations potentially in a similar boat—where U.S. aid might incentivize governments to keep peace with Israel against popular sentiment.,
Aid to Egypt and Jordan as Indirect Support for Israel .
Egypt: As noted earlier, Egypt gets ~$1.3 billion annually, mostly military aid, tied to the 1979 peace treaty with Israel.
The public largely opposes this—over 80% view Israel negatively (Arab Barometer, 2019-2021)—but the military-led government relies on U.S. support to stay afloat,
especially amid economic crises. The aid ensures Egypt keeps the treaty and controls Rafah, aligning with Israel’s security needs.
Jordan: Jordan’s ~$1.45 billion yearly (2022-2029 MOU) supports its 1994 peace treaty with Israel. With over half its population of Palestinian descent,
public sentiment leans heavily anti-Israel (85%+ unfavorable, Arab Barometer 2021).
The monarchy uses U.S. aid to stabilize its economy and military, maintaining border security and intelligence-sharing with Israel despite protests.
Both cases show U.S. aid acting as a stabilizer for regimes that might otherwise face pressure to shift toward their publics’ hostility to Israel.
Critics on X and in analyses (e.g., Middle East Eye) often call this a “bribe” to enforce a pro-Israel status quo.
Other Nations Potentially in the Same Dynamic
Identifying other countries receiving U.S. aid to maintain a non-hostile stance toward Israel against popular wishes involves looking at aid patterns,
government policies, and public attitudes. Here are candidates based on available data and regional dynamics:
Morocco:
Aid: The U.S. provides Morocco with ~$20-40 million annually in military aid (FMF) and economic support, per State Department figures,
with spikes tied to specific deals (e.g., $1 billion in arms sales approved in 2023). Total aid since 2010 exceeds $500 million.
Israel Ties: Morocco normalized relations with Israel in 2020 under the Abraham Accords, partly brokered by the U.S.,
which also recognized Morocco’s claim to Western Sahara—a big diplomatic win.
The U.S. has since boosted military cooperation, including joint exercises.
Public Sentiment: Polls like the Arab Barometer (2021) show 88% of Moroccans oppose normalization with Israel, and protests erupted post-2020 deal.
The monarchy, however, prioritizes U.S. support and Western ties over public dissent, suggesting aid helps sustain this policy. United Arab Emirates (UAE):
Aid: The UAE doesn’t get large direct aid like Egypt or Jordan (it’s too wealthy),
but the U.S. facilitates massive arms sales—$23 billion in F-35s and drones approved post-Abraham Accords in 2020.
Security cooperation and intelligence-sharing are also key.
Israel Ties:
The UAE normalized relations with Israel in 2020, a move tied to U.S. mediation and arms deals. Trade and tech partnerships have since boomed.
Public Sentiment:
Data is sparse due to tight government control, but regional surveys (e.g., Zogby 2021) suggest Gulf populations,
including Emiratis, broadly support Palestinians—over 70% oppose normalization.
The UAE’s autocratic rulers face little public pushback but use U.S. backing to bolster their regional stance.
Bahrain:
Aid:
Bahrain hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet and receives ~$5-10 million yearly in military aid,
plus arms sales (e.g., $2.5 billion in Patriot missiles, 2022). Total aid since 2010 is ~$100 million.
Israel Ties: Bahrain joined the Abraham Accords in 2020, aligning with U.S. and Israeli interests.
It’s maintained quiet security ties since.
Public Sentiment: As a majority-Shiite country ruled by a Sunni monarchy,
Bahrain’s public strongly favors Palestinians—protests against normalization occurred in 2023.
The regime, backed by U.S. and Saudi support, suppresses dissent to keep the Israel policy intact.
Sudan:
Aid:
Sudan’s aid ramped up post-2020 normalization with Israel—$200 million in economic relief in 2021,
plus debt relief promises tied to U.S. lobbying. Military aid is minimal but growing.
Israel Ties: Sudan joined the Abraham Accords in 2020, pushed by the U.S. as part of a deal to exit the terrorism sponsor list.
Public Sentiment: No recent polls exist amid chaos, but historical Arab sentiment and street protests (e.g., 2021 coup aftermath) suggest strong anti-Israel leanings.
The transitional government, now fractured, leaned on U.S. aid to pivot from its anti-Israel past.
Broader Considerations
Gulf States (Qatar, Oman, Kuwait): These don’t have formal ties with Israel but get U.S. security guarantees and arms sales (e.g., Qatar’s $1 billion in F-15s, 2022).
Publics lean pro-Palestinian, but rulers stay neutral or tacitly cooperative with U.S.-Israel goals.
Aid here is less about “bribes” and more about aligning broader interests against Iran.
Pattern: U.S. aid or arms deals often spike after countries take steps toward Israel (e.g., Abraham Accords).
Where public opinion diverges—like Morocco or Bahrain—governments rely on U.S. support to weather domestic backlash.
Caveats and Your Angle
Exact “bribe” amounts are tough to pin down—aid isn’t labeled “for Israel peace” but bundled into military/economic packages.
If you count Egypt ($1.3B) and Jordan ($1.45B) as part of Israel’s aid ecosystem, adding Morocco, UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan could push the tally higher, though their sums are smaller or indirect (arms vs. cash).
The real question is intent: U.S. policy explicitly aims to bolster Israel’s “qualitative military edge” (per State Dept.), and aid to neighbors often offsets their potential hostility.
----------------------- The US National debt is in a large part due to the U.S. support of Israel.
Also, it appears our levels of military expenditures in the future is in a large part due to that arrangement.
U.S. support for Israel significantly contributes to both the national debt and future military expenditures.
Let’s unpack this by putting the numbers we’ve discussed into the context of the U.S. national debt and defense spending, then reasoning through how much Israel might drive these.
It’s a big claim, so we’ll test it with data and logic, keeping an eye on scale and causality.
U.S. National Debt Context
The U.S. national debt is $35.7 trillion as of March 2025 (per TreasuryDirect, assuming steady growth from $34.6T in October 2024).
It’s ballooned from $5.6T in 2000, driven by wars, tax cuts, recessions, and pandemics. Annual deficits average $1-2T recently (CBO, 2024).
Israel-Related Costs (Annual)
From our earlier breakdown:
Direct + Neighbors Aid: $15.6-17.7 billion/year (2025 estimate)—Israel ($8.8-9.8B), neighbors like Egypt/Jordan ($2.8-2.9B), regional ops ($4-5B).
Historical Losses: $4.7 trillion (2025 dollars) over decades—1973 oil embargo ($1.17T), 9/11 wars/security ($3.37T), other ($150B).
Tech Transfers: $7-11B in sales to China, maybe $1-3B more covertly, with unquantified strategic costs.
Debt Contribution
Annual Share: $15.6-17.7B is 0.8-1% of a $2T deficit or 0.24-0.27% of a $6.5T federal budget (2024).
It’s real money—enough to fund, say, half the National Park Service—but a sliver of yearly borrowing.
Historical Total: The $4.7T in past losses spans 50+ years.
Averaged annually (1973-2025), that’s $90B/year, though it’s front-loaded (e.g., $6.8T war costs mostly 2001-2023).
Add tech losses ($10B, spread out), and call it $100-110B/year historically.
Against a $35.7T debt, that’s ~2.8-3.1% if fully borrowed (much was).
Interest: Debt compounds. If $4.7T was borrowed at 3% average interest since incurred, interest could add $2-3T by 2025 (rough compound calc). Total Israel-linked debt might then be $6.7-7.7T, or 19-22% of $35.7T. X posts claim higher (e.g., $30T), but that’s unbacked. Verdict on Debt Israel-related costs aren’t “a large part” in absolute terms—3% historically, 20% with interest, still dwarfed by Social Security ($13T projected 2025-2035, CBO), Medicare, or tax cuts ($2T from 2017 TCJA). But $6.7-7.7T isn’t trivial—bigger than the $5.9T COVID relief (2020-2021). It’s a contributor, not the driver. Other factors (wars unrelated to Israel, entitlements) dominate. Future Military Expenditures U.S. defense spending is $886 billion for FY 2025 (NDAA), or 3% of GDP. It’s projected to rise to $1T+ by 2030 (CBO), driven by China, Russia, and Middle East instability. Israel’s Role Current Baseline: $15.6-17.7B/year is ~2% of $886B. Israel’s $8.8-9.8B aid is 1.1%, neighbors/ops another 0.9%. Small, but locked in via MOUs (e.g., Israel’s $3.8B/year to 2028). Tech Leak Costs: China’s gains from Israel’s transfers (e.g., J-10, KJ-2000) force U.S. counter spending—F-35s ($1.7T program), naval upgrades ($300B/decade). If 10-20% ties to Israel’s leaks (debatable), that’s $200-500B over 20 years, or $10-25B/year. Strategic, not direct. Regional Instability: Israel’s conflicts (e.g., Gaza 2023-2025) draw U.S. assets—carriers, munitions. Brown University pegged 2023-2024 ops at $4.86B; assume $5B/year forward. Iran’s response (Hezbollah, Houthis) adds $10-20B/year (e.g., Red Sea patrols). Call it $15-25B/year tied to Israel’s orbit. Future Total: $15.6-17.7B (current) + $10-25B (tech) + $15-25B (instability) = $40.6-67.7B/year. Against $1T by 2030, that’s 4-6.8%. Verdict on Military Spending Israel’s influence here is bigger than on debt—4-6.8% of future budgets isn’t “a large part” numerically, but it’s a persistent multiplier. China’s rise ($768B defense budget, SIPRI 2024) and Iran’s proxies are partly fueled by Israel-related tech and tensions. Still, great-power competition (China’s navy, Russia’s nukes) drives most of the $1T—not Israel alone. Big Picture Debt: Israel’s $6.7-7.7T (with interest) is 19-22% of $35.7T—a chunky slice, but not “a large part” when entitlements and tax policy dwarf it. It’s more than, say, Iraq War borrowing alone (~$2T), but not the debt’s backbone. Military Future: $40-67B/year is 4-6.8% of projected spending—significant, especially if tech leaks amplify China’s threat. It’s a catalyst, not the core driver (China’s $200B+ annual military growth overshadows). Causality Check Debt: Much of the $4.7T (e.g., 9/11 wars) has mixed causes—Israel’s a factor, not the sole trigger. Oil embargoes hit regardless of Israel due to Arab nationalism. Military: Israel’s role locks in costs (aid, ops), but U.S. primacy goals would demand big budgets anyway—Russia/Ukraine ($61B aid since 2022) shows that. Your Angle It “appears” Israel bulks up both debt and military spending—and it does, measurably. But “large part” overstates it relative to systemic drivers (healthcare, tax cuts, China). If you cut Israel support, you’d shave maybe 20% off historical debt and 5% off future defense—not nothing, but not transformative. X posts might scream “all due to Israel,” but the math says it’s a piece, not the puzzle. What’s your read—does this shift your view on the tradeoff? ----------------------------------------- The annual cost to the U.S. of supporting Israel and its neighbors, presumably those tied to maintaining non-hostile relations with Israel, like Egypt and Jordan, and perhaps others in the broader regional dynamic. Let’s piece this together based on current data and the context we’ve discussed, focusing on 2025 estimates where possible, since that’s the current year. This will include direct aid to Israel, aid to key neighbors, and some related regional costs, though exact totals fluctuate yearly due to supplemental funding and crises. Direct Aid to Israel Israel is the biggest recipient of U.S. foreign aid historically, and its baseline annual support is well-documented: Standard Aid: Under the 2016-2028 Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), Israel gets $3.8 billion annually—$3.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing (FMF) for U.S. weapons and $500 million for missile defense (e.g., Iron Dome). This is locked in through 2028, so it’s a safe bet for 2025 absent major policy shifts. Supplemental Aid: Since October 7, 2023, the U.S. has ramped up support due to the Gaza war and regional escalations. A Brown University Costs of War report pegged military aid to Israel at $17.9 billion for October 2023-September 2024 alone, far exceeding the MOU. For 2025, additional packages are in play—e.g., a proposed $8 billion arms sale (January 2025, State Dept.) and $4 billion fast-tracked by the Trump admin (March 2025, per AJC). Assuming these are spread over multiple years, let’s conservatively estimate $5-6 billion extra for 2025, based on recent trends and ongoing conflicts with Hamas and Hezbollah. Total for Israel: Combining the baseline ($3.8B) and supplemental ($5-6B), the U.S. likely spends $8.8-9.8 billion annually on Israel in 2025, though this could climb if fighting intensifies. Aid to Israel’s Neighbors Several neighbors receive U.S. aid explicitly or implicitly tied to their non-hostile stance toward Israel. Here’s the breakdown: Egypt: Gets $1.3 billion annually, mostly FMF, under a long-standing deal linked to the 1979 peace treaty with Israel. This figure holds steady into 2025 unless Congress alters it (no major changes signaled yet). Jordan: Under the 2022-2029 MOU, Jordan receives $1.45 billion annually—$1.035 billion in economic aid and $400 million in FMF. This supports its 1994 peace treaty with Israel and border stability. No cuts are projected for 2025. Morocco: Post-2020 normalization with Israel, Morocco gets $20-40 million annually in military aid, plus occasional arms sales (e.g., $1 billion approved in 2023). Call it $30 million as a 2025 average. Bahrain: Hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet and gets $5-10 million annually in FMF, with arms sales like $2.5 billion in 2022. Estimate $7 million for 2025, tied to its 2020 Israel deal. Sudan: After 2020 normalization, Sudan got a one-off $200 million in 2021, but ongoing civil war makes 2025 aid uncertain—likely minimal, say $10-20 million if anything. Subtotal for Neighbors: Adding Egypt ($1.3B), Jordan ($1.45B), Morocco ($0.03B), Bahrain ($0.007B), and Sudan ($0.015B), that’s roughly $2.8-2.9 billion annually in 2025. Related Regional Costs The U.S. also spends on military operations tied to Israel’s security, like countering Iran-backed groups (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah). The Costs of War report estimated $4.86 billion for October 2023-September 2024 on regional ops—think Navy patrols in the Red Sea or troop deployments. For 2025, with tensions persisting, assume a similar $4-5 billion, though this isn’t aid to specific countries but broader support for Israel’s regional edge. Total Annual Cost (2025 Estimate) Israel: $8.8-9.8 billion Neighbors: $2.8-2.9 billion Regional Ops: $4-5 billion Grand Total: $15.6-17.7 billion annually Context and Caveats This is a snapshot for 2025, rooted in current MOUs, recent supplemental aid, and operational trends. It doesn’t include historical costs (e.g., Iraq War, which some link to Israel’s security but is debated) or one-off arms sales still in delivery pipelines. Costs spike during wars—like the $17.9 billion in 2023-2024—and could jump again if Israel escalates further. Conversely, Trump’s threats to cut aid (e.g., Egypt over Gaza refugees) could trim this, though his admin’s pro-Israel tilt suggests increases are more likely. Compared to the U.S. federal budget ($6.5 trillion in 2024), this is under 0.3%, but it’s a hefty chunk of foreign aid ($60-70 billion total in 2023). Posts on X and critics like @Plucille54 suggest a broader historical tally—$500 billion since 1948, or $3.5 trillion with Iraq—but annually, we’re in the $15-18 billion ballpark for now. What do you think—does this scope surprise you, or are there other angles you’d want to factor in? An estimate of how much IRS revenue is lost due to charitable giving by private U.S. citizens to Israel, based on the $2.23-3.6 billion annual transfer figure we calculated earlier. This involves determining how much of that amount is tax-deductible, how it reduces taxable income for donors, and ultimately how it impacts federal tax revenue. Let’s refine this step-by-step, using IRS rules, tax data, and reasonable assumptions, since exact numbers aren’t publicly tracked for this specific flow. Step 1: Scope of Deductible Giving Not all $2.23-3.6 billion is deductible—only contributions to qualified organizations under U.S. tax law count: Charitable Donations: The $1.4-1.8 billion in donations (e.g., Jewish Federations, FIDF) largely goes to U.S.-based 501(c)(3) organizations that support Israel or Israeli charities recognized under the U.S.-Israel tax treaty (Article 15A). These are deductible if donors itemize. Per IRS Publication 526, contributions to Israeli charities are deductible only if the donor has Israeli-sourced income (capped at 25% of that AGI), but most U.S. giving funnels through U.S. nonprofits, avoiding this limit. Investments/Remittances: The $750M-$1.7B in investments (VC, real estate) and $75-100M in remittances aren’t deductible—they’re not charitable contributions but economic transfers. Deductible Portion: Assume $1.4-1.8 billion is potentially deductible, as charity dominates the deductible category. Step 2: Who Itemizes? Only taxpayers who itemize deductions on Schedule A (Form 1040) can claim charitable deductions. Per IRS data (2021, latest comprehensive): Itemizers: ~11% of taxpayers itemized (13.7 million out of 153.6 million returns), down from 30% pre-2017 due to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act doubling the standard deduction ($12,950 single, $25,900 joint in 2022; $15,700/$31,400 in 2025). Giving Profile: Donors to Israel skew wealthier (e.g., FIDF galas attract high rollers). The top 10% of earners (AGI $153K+, 2021) account for 75% of charitable deductions (SOI Tax Stats). Assume 50-70% of the $1.4-1.8B comes from itemizers—higher than the 11% average due to this demographic—yielding $0.7-1.26 billion in claimed deductions. Step 3: Tax Impact of Deductions Deductions reduce taxable income, not taxes directly. Revenue loss depends on donors’ marginal tax rates: Limits: Cash donations to public charities (most Israel-focused 501(c)(3)s) are capped at 60% of AGI (post-2017). Excess carries over 5 years. Given the wealth of donors, most stay within limits. Tax Rates: Marginal rates range from 10% to 37% (2025 brackets). Wealthy itemizers (e.g., AGI $200K-$500K) often hit 32-37%; the top 1% (AGI $600K+) pay 37%. Per SOI, the average effective rate for itemized deductions is ~25-30% for high earners (Tax Foundation, 2023). Revenue Loss Calc: Low end: $0.7B × 25% = $175 million High end: $1.26B × 30% = $378 million Midpoint: $1B × 27.5% = $275 million Step 4: Refining Assumptions Surge Effect: The 2023-2025 Gaza war boosted giving ($200-300M extra). If 50-70% is deducted at 25-30%, that’s an additional $50-105 million/year in lost revenue during this period, pushing the range to $225-483 million. Non-Itemizers: The $300 standard deduction for non-itemizers (2021 CARES Act, expired 2022) was minor and rarely Israel-specific—negligible here. Treaty Nuance: U.S. donors with Israeli income (rare) face a 25% AGI cap, but most giving is to U.S. entities, sidestepping this. Final Estimate Annual IRS revenue lost due to charitable giving to Israel by U.S. citizens: Peacetime: $175-378 million (baseline $1.4-1.8B donations) Wartime (2023-2025): $225-483 million (with surge) Best Guess: $200-400 million averaging across years, leaning toward $275M in a typical year. Reality Check Scale: Total charitable deductions were $332 billion in 2021 (IRS SOI), cutting revenue by ~$80-100 billion (25-30% effective rate). Israel’s $200-400M is 0.2-0.5% of that—small but not nothing. Critics: X posts might claim “billions” lost, but that’s aid conflation. This aligns with tax data and donation patterns. Upside: Donors save taxes, but the U.S. recoups some via economic ties (e.g., Israel’s $4B/year U.S. arms purchases). This refined $200-400 million/year is the IRS’s “cost” for these deductions. Does this match your intuition, or want me to tweak something?